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Sue the experts

5/15/2020

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"Often wrong, but never in doubt." They are on your television screen, the credentialed class, the talkers, the bureaucrats, the professors, impeccably tailored, coiffed, and made-up. The three words not in their vocabulary: "I don't know." We trust them to make life-or-death decisions for us, not because they have a track record of being correct, but because we are told they are the "experts". How do we know they are "experts"? Because other people say so, people who themselves are "experts". Their "expertise" is determined through a circular process. They are in the club, and you are not.

If you do dare to think for yourself, you are deemed "dangerous", "discredited", "debunked". After a struggle of millennia to liberate the mind of man from tyrannical diktat, and the urging of decades to "Question authority", all of a sudden, "The science is settled"; "We follow the science"; "We follow the experts"; "We follow the consensus". We dare not look at the man behind the curtain.

A few decades after repeated, dire warnings about the upcoming ice age, the "experts" decided that all life on earth will end in 11 years due to catastrophic anthropogenic global warming . Like good lemmings, the chattering class instantly adopted the new cry of "wolf". That changed back to global cooling this morning, with a report on the sunspot minimum.

Dr. Fauci's history includes incorrect forecasts on the AIDS pandemic, and statements from early 2020 about the minimal danger from the Wuhan coronavirus. The Imperial College pandemic model came from a forecaster who overestimated deaths from mad cow disease by several orders of magnitude. The IHME pandemic model's 95% prediction intervals only contained actual future observations 30% of the time. The "experts" decided that elderly coronavirus patients should be placed in nursing homes. None of this has stopped the chattering class from obeisance to these failed prophets.

The world is a complex place, with many variables. Even among the known variables, their values are not often known.

This household is becoming aware of a new horror of our national lockdown: the denial of medical care to the 99.6% of Americans who are not coronavirus patients. Estimates are for tens of thousands of missed cancer diagnoses in America; studies in Australia and South Africa predict similarly dire consequences, as the government allows treatment of only one disease that has afflicted 0.06% of the world's population, and killed 0.004% of the world's population. What did the chattering class say about the importance of saving even one life?

This petition needs 100,000 signatures by June 8 to get action. Please help us by signing: petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/order-governors-allow-their-citizens-receive-healthcare-we-need-coronavirus-isnt-only-health-problem

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The following graphics show my forecast of new coronavirus cases in the United States, with R-squared close to 96%; and weekly new coronavirus cases per million population in several countries.
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    Hal M. Switkay, Ph.D. is a professional mathematician and statistician.

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