The Switkay USA Economic Vitality Index increased 2.34 points to reach a level of 80.35 for the 2nd quarter of 2015, its highest level since the 2nd quarter of 2009.
Unemployment is one of the key components of the index. We use data supplied by the Bureau of Labor statistics. We note however that the Gallup estimate of U3 unemployment is about 1% higher than BLS, and Gallup's estimate of U6 (underemployment) is about 3% higher than BLS.
The civilian labor force participation rate remains near a 36-year low. The velocity of the M2 money supply remains near historic lows. Mean weeks of unemployment is at its lowest level since 3rd quarter, 2009. Real GDP per capita remains below its peak in 4th quarter, 2014.
The Switkay USA Economic Vitality Index is a function of the following variables:
· real gross domestic product per capita;
· total Federal debt as a percentage of gross domestic product;
· the U6 unemployment rate (including those working part-time who would prefer full-time work);
· mean weeks of unemployment;
· average hourly earnings, production and non-supervisory employees, private;
· US population;
· the civilian labor force participation rate;
· the consumer price index, all urban consumers;
· the velocity of the M2 money stock;
· the real trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar (broad index);
· real net worth of households and non-profits.
It is updated at the end of every quarter, when data for the previous quarter become finalized. We use the word real to mean inflation-adjusted. All data is taken from FRED, the research service of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The index is normalized so that its median value in the years 1973 to 2008 is 100.
Unemployment is one of the key components of the index. We use data supplied by the Bureau of Labor statistics. We note however that the Gallup estimate of U3 unemployment is about 1% higher than BLS, and Gallup's estimate of U6 (underemployment) is about 3% higher than BLS.
The civilian labor force participation rate remains near a 36-year low. The velocity of the M2 money supply remains near historic lows. Mean weeks of unemployment is at its lowest level since 3rd quarter, 2009. Real GDP per capita remains below its peak in 4th quarter, 2014.
The Switkay USA Economic Vitality Index is a function of the following variables:
· real gross domestic product per capita;
· total Federal debt as a percentage of gross domestic product;
· the U6 unemployment rate (including those working part-time who would prefer full-time work);
· mean weeks of unemployment;
· average hourly earnings, production and non-supervisory employees, private;
· US population;
· the civilian labor force participation rate;
· the consumer price index, all urban consumers;
· the velocity of the M2 money stock;
· the real trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar (broad index);
· real net worth of households and non-profits.
It is updated at the end of every quarter, when data for the previous quarter become finalized. We use the word real to mean inflation-adjusted. All data is taken from FRED, the research service of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The index is normalized so that its median value in the years 1973 to 2008 is 100.
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