Looking back at the Georgia and Texas primaries, our models were generally more accurate than the major poll averages. The major exception was model 1 missing the big Cruz surge in Texas. Overall, our two models are more accurate than the major poll averages.

Today's big primary is in Michigan. Here are our predictions:

Model 1: Clinton 63.0%, Sanders 37.0%
Trump 41.8%, Cruz 22.2%, Kasich 21.6%, Rubio 14.4%

Model 2: Clinton 60.4%, Sanders 39.6%
​Trump 40.3%, Kasich 27.3%, Cruz 24.4%, Rubio 8.0%

Clinton easily defeats Sanders either way. Trump wins Michigan in both models. The big story will be Kasich, who surges in model 2 at Rubio's expense. We shall see.

We calculate the likelihood of winning the nomination based on delegates won to date plus national poll standings below.

Clinton has a more than 67% chance of winning her party's nomination at this point, while Trump has a more than 51% chance of winning his party's nomination. All other candidates are far behind.

However, if Kasich loses Ohio and Rubio loses Florida next week and both drop out, how would a one-on-one match between Trump and Cruz go? We don't yet have enough polling data to make a reliable prediction.

After next week's big contests in Florida, Illinois, North Carolina, and Ohio, we have a wonderful model to discuss predicting the outcome of the general election based on economic variables. Stay tuned!

We have a lot of information to share today, so let's get to work. First of all, the performance of our predictive models has been fairly good in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. In fact, our two models predicted the actual results in the three states with 20-30% less error than the averages of Real Clear Politics and the Huffington Post, as seen below; the performance in South Carolina was very good. In fact, only our models picked up the huge last-minute surge for Clinton in SC.

There are numerous primaries today. I will give forecasts for only Georgia and Texas.

GA Model 1: Clinton 67.7%, Sanders 32.3%; Trump 40.6%, Rubio 22.5%, Cruz 20.9%, Kasich 8.3%, Carson 7.7%

GA Model 2: Clinton 69.5%, Sanders 30.5%; Trump 41.1%, Rubio 22.7%, Cruz 20.7%, Kasich 8.4%, Carson 7.1%

TX Model 1: Clinton 68.8%, Sanders 31.2%; Cruz 34.2%, Trump 30.6%, Rubio 20.5%, Kasich 8.2%, Carson 6.5%

TX Model 2: Clinton 65.0%, Sanders 35.0%; Cruz 35.7%, Trump 31.8%, Rubio 16.9%, Kasich 8.7%, Carson 6.8%

Finally, let's take another look at the likelihood of these 7 candidates achieving their party's nominations, including the results from IA, NH, NV, and SC, but not Super Tuesday. Clinton holds more than a 9-point lead on her challenger Sanders. Trump holds almost a 25-point lead on his closest challenger Cruz. However, we will have a lot more information within a day, as so many delegates will be chosen today.