"Often wrong, but never in doubt." They are on your television screen, the credentialed class, the talkers, the bureaucrats, the professors, impeccably tailored, coiffed, and made-up. The three words not in their vocabulary: "I don't know." We trust them to make life-or-death decisions for us, not because they have a track record of being correct, but because we are told they are the "experts". How do we know they are "experts"? Because other people say so, people who themselves are "experts". Their "expertise" is determined through a circular process. They are in the club, and you are not.

If you do dare to think for yourself, you are deemed "dangerous", "discredited", "debunked". After a struggle of millennia to liberate the mind of man from tyrannical diktat, and the urging of decades to "Question authority", all of a sudden, "The science is settled"; "We follow the science"; "We follow the experts"; "We follow the consensus". We dare not look at the man behind the curtain.

A few decades after repeated, dire warnings about the upcoming ice age, the "experts" decided that all life on earth will end in 11 years due to catastrophic anthropogenic global warming . Like good lemmings, the chattering class instantly adopted the new cry of "wolf". That changed back to global cooling this morning, with a report on the sunspot minimum.

Dr. Fauci's history includes incorrect forecasts on the AIDS pandemic, and statements from early 2020 about the minimal danger from the Wuhan coronavirus. The Imperial College pandemic model came from a forecaster who overestimated deaths from mad cow disease by several orders of magnitude. The IHME pandemic model's 95% prediction intervals only contained actual future observations 30% of the time. The "experts" decided that elderly coronavirus patients should be placed in nursing homes. None of this has stopped the chattering class from obeisance to these failed prophets.

The world is a complex place, with many variables. Even among the known variables, their values are not often known.

This household is becoming aware of a new horror of our national lockdown: the denial of medical care to the 99.6% of Americans who are not coronavirus patients. Estimates are for tens of thousands of missed cancer diagnoses in America; studies in Australia and South Africa predict similarly dire consequences, as the government allows treatment of only one disease that has afflicted 0.06% of the world's population, and killed 0.004% of the world's population. What did the chattering class say about the importance of saving even one life?

This petition needs 100,000 signatures by June 8 to get action. Please help us by signing: petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/order-governors-allow-their-citizens-receive-healthcare-we-need-coronavirus-isnt-only-health-problem

​The following graphics show my forecast of new coronavirus cases in the United States, with R-squared close to 96%; and weekly new coronavirus cases per million population in several countries.

Every generation has its new non-theistic religion. We have seen the worship of money, power, fame, celebrity, athletic prowess, utopianism, and environmentalism. Now, the best way to virtue-signal is to assert that you "believe in the science", or that you "believe the experts". However, the "experts" aren't always right; and "the science" has nothing to do with science. The adherents of scientism actually worship authority; but the worship of authority is deadly for science.

The adherents of scientism do not attempt to define science. We need to know what science is before we state that we "believe in the science". Science is the search for the objective truth regarding the laws and details of nature. It is hypocritical for the same intellectuals who have been lecturing us for the last half-century that there is no such thing as objective truth, suddenly to turn around and claim to be the sole custodians of objective truth.

There is objective truth, as revealed, for example, in mathematics. Both mathematics and natural science demonstrate that objective truth is infinitely detailed; we can always learn more. The adherents of scientism, those who "believe the experts", have held back scientific progress for centuries. In modern times, they proudly identify themselves with "the consensus".

Five hundred twenty-eight years ago, the consensus of the "experts" was that Columbus's voyage was doomed to fall off the edge of the flat earth. Two hundred years ago, the consensus of the "experts" was that mankind could not survive travel faster than half the speed limit of most highways today. The consensus of the "experts" one hundred fifty years ago was that light propagates through the luminiferous ether, and that there is a fixed frame of reference for physics. Einstein's "Jewish physics" was rejected in a letter signed by the "experts" of German physics. The discovery of radioactivity and antibiotics were accidents. The discoveries of the citric acid cycle and quasi-crystals were not published on their initial submission; the second one was deemed impossible; both discoveries earned Nobel prizes.

Unfortunately, humanity never takes this lesson to heart. The elites have never given up on the goal outlined in Plato's Republic: to constitute a ruling class. Original thinking is suppressed. Mere observation of fact is treated as dangerous. One dare not acknowledge that the emperor has no clothes.

Someone sent me an interesting graphic comparing mortality rates for the influenza virus of 2017-18 with the Wuhan coronavirus of 2019-20, in America, stratified by age. See below.

I qualify this: I have not seen the original data for this study. However, there does not appear to be much difference.

The following graphics show cumulative Wuhan coronavirus deaths per million population, from Our World in Data, and weekly new cases of Wuhan coronavirus for the most afflicted countries.

The first chart shows that America's cumulative death rate from Wuhan coronavirus is substantially lower than most countries in western Europe. The second chart might seem to imply that Brazil is doing something right; however, they are emerging from summer to cooler fall weather, and their cases may begin to rise.

Immersing myself in the data for the last two months, I am gradually concluding that nothing we do makes a difference in the progress of the virus. The virus is working towards a goal of infecting as many as possible. Most infected people will develop immunity. Only infected people will slow the progress of the virus. This is the concept of herd immunity.

Originally, America was told that we must "flatten the curve". We were fearful that a tidal wave of sick patients would overwhelm the health care system, with tens of thousands of corpses blocking the entrances of hospitals. We have passed the peak, without overwhelming the health care system in most of America. Our local hospital is performing operations at only 20% of its full capacity, due to the governor's orders. Presumably, cancer screenings, stents, dialysis, and the like are "elective" procedures - if you are not a member of the elite.

But the elites have moved the goalposts. Now that we have successfully "flattened the curve", we are being told that we cannot be released from effectively national house arrest until the Wuhan coronavirus is eradicated.

One week from today, we are likely to discover that the unemployment rate is at least 18%; GDP is expected to plunge in the second quarter at an annualized rate of close to 30%. The people advocating this draconian national lockdown work from home on their computers. Their voices are amplified by their friends in the media. These latter tell us soothingly and mendaciously, "We are all in this together". They are not small-business owners struggling to pay bills, on a paper-thin margin that has torn asunder, nor are they craftsmen, or independent contractors.

But what about the death toll? It seems that during our national crisis, the death toll has decreased.The following numbers are from the CDC: US deaths from all causes in weeks 7 through 13 in 2020 compared with average deaths from all causes in weeks 7 through 13 from 2014 through 2019 in (parens).

• Week 7 - 55,981 (57,033)
• Week 8 - 55,494 (56,300)
• Week 9 - 54,834 (55,848)
• Week 10 - 54,157 (56,160)
• Week 11 - 52,198 (55,395)
• Week 12 - 51,602 (55,035)
• Week 13 - 52,285 (54,212)

My conclusion is straightforward:

Social distancing, face masks, washing: yes!

Stay-at-home orders, business closures: no!

​Never surrender your right to think for yourself!