We have a lot of information to share today, so let's get to work. First of all, the performance of our predictive models has been fairly good in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. In fact, our two models predicted the actual results in the three states with 20-30% less error than the averages of Real Clear Politics and the Huffington Post, as seen below; the performance in South Carolina was very good. In fact, only our models picked up the huge last-minute surge for Clinton in SC.
There are numerous primaries today. I will give forecasts for only Georgia and Texas.
GA Model 1: Clinton 67.7%, Sanders 32.3%; Trump 40.6%, Rubio 22.5%, Cruz 20.9%, Kasich 8.3%, Carson 7.7%
GA Model 2: Clinton 69.5%, Sanders 30.5%; Trump 41.1%, Rubio 22.7%, Cruz 20.7%, Kasich 8.4%, Carson 7.1%
TX Model 1: Clinton 68.8%, Sanders 31.2%; Cruz 34.2%, Trump 30.6%, Rubio 20.5%, Kasich 8.2%, Carson 6.5%
TX Model 2: Clinton 65.0%, Sanders 35.0%; Cruz 35.7%, Trump 31.8%, Rubio 16.9%, Kasich 8.7%, Carson 6.8%
Finally, let's take another look at the likelihood of these 7 candidates achieving their party's nominations, including the results from IA, NH, NV, and SC, but not Super Tuesday. Clinton holds more than a 9-point lead on her challenger Sanders. Trump holds almost a 25-point lead on his closest challenger Cruz. However, we will have a lot more information within a day, as so many delegates will be chosen today.
GA Model 1: Clinton 67.7%, Sanders 32.3%; Trump 40.6%, Rubio 22.5%, Cruz 20.9%, Kasich 8.3%, Carson 7.7%
GA Model 2: Clinton 69.5%, Sanders 30.5%; Trump 41.1%, Rubio 22.7%, Cruz 20.7%, Kasich 8.4%, Carson 7.1%
TX Model 1: Clinton 68.8%, Sanders 31.2%; Cruz 34.2%, Trump 30.6%, Rubio 20.5%, Kasich 8.2%, Carson 6.5%
TX Model 2: Clinton 65.0%, Sanders 35.0%; Cruz 35.7%, Trump 31.8%, Rubio 16.9%, Kasich 8.7%, Carson 6.8%
Finally, let's take another look at the likelihood of these 7 candidates achieving their party's nominations, including the results from IA, NH, NV, and SC, but not Super Tuesday. Clinton holds more than a 9-point lead on her challenger Sanders. Trump holds almost a 25-point lead on his closest challenger Cruz. However, we will have a lot more information within a day, as so many delegates will be chosen today.
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