The Michigan primary; reviewing Super Tuesday

Looking back at the Georgia and Texas primaries, our models were generally more accurate than the major poll averages. The major exception was model 1 missing the big Cruz surge in Texas. Overall, our two models are more accurate than the major poll averages.

Today's big primary is in Michigan. Here are our predictions:

Model 1: Clinton 63.0%, Sanders 37.0%
Trump 41.8%, Cruz 22.2%, Kasich 21.6%, Rubio 14.4%

Model 2: Clinton 60.4%, Sanders 39.6%
​Trump 40.3%, Kasich 27.3%, Cruz 24.4%, Rubio 8.0%

Clinton easily defeats Sanders either way. Trump wins Michigan in both models. The big story will be Kasich, who surges in model 2 at Rubio's expense. We shall see.

We calculate the likelihood of winning the nomination based on delegates won to date plus national poll standings below.

Clinton has a more than 67% chance of winning her party's nomination at this point, while Trump has a more than 51% chance of winning his party's nomination. All other candidates are far behind.

However, if Kasich loses Ohio and Rubio loses Florida next week and both drop out, how would a one-on-one match between Trump and Cruz go? We don't yet have enough polling data to make a reliable prediction.

After next week's big contests in Florida, Illinois, North Carolina, and Ohio, we have a wonderful model to discuss predicting the outcome of the general election based on economic variables. Stay tuned!