It's a tough time to be a "non-essential" worker or a small-business owner. One of America's most thoughtful, unifying, and inspirational governors recommended that such people simply get jobs as essential workers. Problem solved!
The problem may be a bit more difficult than it seems, however. The US Department of Labor follows a weekly measure of unemployment called the Insured Unemployment Rate. In the past decade, this number has run at about 3 times the standard unemployment rate. The jump last week from 1.2% to 11% should be alarming, as seen in the graphic below.
The problem may be a bit more difficult than it seems, however. The US Department of Labor follows a weekly measure of unemployment called the Insured Unemployment Rate. In the past decade, this number has run at about 3 times the standard unemployment rate. The jump last week from 1.2% to 11% should be alarming, as seen in the graphic below.
If we add in the effects of underemployment, shown in the U6 rate, we see that U6 has run between 3 and 7 times the insured unemployment rate, as shown in the graphic below.
Although this ratio declines in bad economic times, the most recent level of this ratio, about 3.6, implies that we could be looking at a U6 rate close to 40%, with standard unemployment close to 20%, in the next Labor Department release Friday morning, May 8.
State governments are closing businesses arbitrarily, with no guaranteed date for re-opening. These businesses employ tens of millions of Americans, run on a thin margin, and are weeks away from being unable to pay their own bills.
An esthetician's business was shut down by a wise governor: www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/04/20/pennsylvania-nonessential-worker-blasts-gov-tom-wolf-why-dont-you-stop-getting-paid/
A consignment store owner had to lay off her employees, while big-box stores are still permitted to sell clothing, as directed by the same wise governor: www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/04/20/pa-consignment-store-owner-how-can-walmart-target-still-sell-kids-clothes-i-cant/
A farmer had 61 thousand chickens euthanized, at a time when our supermarket has very few eggs on the shelf: www.startribune.com/egg-demand-shifted-and-61-000-minnesota-chickens-were-euthanized/569817312/
Why has this been done? To save lives? So far, projections show that American deaths from Wuhan coronavirus will be approximately as many as the high end of flu seasons. Indeed, we may well be on the road to herd immunity. Several recent studies have found the prevalence of Wuhan coronavirus antibodies in the population to be dozens of times higher than the number of confirmed cases. But the Congressional Budget Office is forecasting a contraction of 40% in GDP, a return to the 1930s, if we continue the lockdowns.
The following graphic shows the per capita death rate from Wuhan coronavirus in America to be running substantially less than that in Europe.
State governments are closing businesses arbitrarily, with no guaranteed date for re-opening. These businesses employ tens of millions of Americans, run on a thin margin, and are weeks away from being unable to pay their own bills.
An esthetician's business was shut down by a wise governor: www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/04/20/pennsylvania-nonessential-worker-blasts-gov-tom-wolf-why-dont-you-stop-getting-paid/
A consignment store owner had to lay off her employees, while big-box stores are still permitted to sell clothing, as directed by the same wise governor: www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/04/20/pa-consignment-store-owner-how-can-walmart-target-still-sell-kids-clothes-i-cant/
A farmer had 61 thousand chickens euthanized, at a time when our supermarket has very few eggs on the shelf: www.startribune.com/egg-demand-shifted-and-61-000-minnesota-chickens-were-euthanized/569817312/
Why has this been done? To save lives? So far, projections show that American deaths from Wuhan coronavirus will be approximately as many as the high end of flu seasons. Indeed, we may well be on the road to herd immunity. Several recent studies have found the prevalence of Wuhan coronavirus antibodies in the population to be dozens of times higher than the number of confirmed cases. But the Congressional Budget Office is forecasting a contraction of 40% in GDP, a return to the 1930s, if we continue the lockdowns.
The following graphic shows the per capita death rate from Wuhan coronavirus in America to be running substantially less than that in Europe.
Within America itself, there is tremendous variability in the impact of Wuhan coronavirus by county, as shown in the following graphic. While New York City and its immediate suburbs have been hit hard, the parts of America that grow our food have been touched more lightly. As I showed in my previous post, this is a direct function of population density. To be blunt, America should not be forced into a Venezuela-style calamity, starving with no toilet paper, due to a disease primarily affecting a few large cities and their immediate suburbs (also shown in my previous post).
In a nutshell, the lesson is this.
Social distancing, face masks, washing: yes!
Stay-at-home orders, business closures: no!
Social distancing, face masks, washing: yes!
Stay-at-home orders, business closures: no!
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