(Updated Feb. 19) We have been using two models so far with relative success. In Nevada, the predictions are:
Model 1 - Clinton 54.7, Sanders 45.3
There is not enough data to run model 2 in Nevada. In South Carolina, the predictions are:
Model 1 - Trump 28.8, Rubio 21.7, Cruz 17.6, Kasich 11.8, Bush 11.7, Carson 8.4
Model 2 - Rubio 27.7, Trump 26.6, Cruz 17.9, Bush 11.4, Kasich 9.5, Carson 6.9
In model 2, Rubio gets a significant surge due to stronger performance in the last few days, perhaps because of Governor Haley's endorsement.
Let's review our performance in New Hampshire.
Model 1 - Clinton 54.7, Sanders 45.3
There is not enough data to run model 2 in Nevada. In South Carolina, the predictions are:
Model 1 - Trump 28.8, Rubio 21.7, Cruz 17.6, Kasich 11.8, Bush 11.7, Carson 8.4
Model 2 - Rubio 27.7, Trump 26.6, Cruz 17.9, Bush 11.4, Kasich 9.5, Carson 6.9
In model 2, Rubio gets a significant surge due to stronger performance in the last few days, perhaps because of Governor Haley's endorsement.
Let's review our performance in New Hampshire.
Our models slightly underperformed the forecasts of Real Clear Politics and the Huffington Post, because of a last minute fall in support for Rubio; not only did he lose undecided voters, he also lost some of his previous support. However, the cumulative track record of our models is still better than the published averages. That is likely to be tested severely this weekend, so stay tuned. We hope to have forecasts for you next week of the SC Democrats and the NV Republicans.
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