Above are my forecasts for the outcomes for today's New Hampshire presidential primaries. The model 2 forecasts were so accurate in Iowa that I am publishing only model 2 this time (although I computed model 1 for reference). Noteworthy are a very slight closing of the gap on the Democrat side; and on the Republican side, a last-minute surge for Rubio, a slight surge for Kasich, and collapses for Christie, Fiorina, and Carson. These last 3 candidates will find it hard to go on after today. (NH pollsters have not been asking about Gov. Gilmore, who is at 0% nationally, and won about 0.01% of the vote in Iowa.)
Dr. Carson's campaign has suffered from a lack of attention not consistent with his 4th place position nationally. I noticed a disparity in the number of minutes each candidate was given in the last 3 Republican presidential debates. Dr. Carson received less than half the time given to the most voluble speaker; see below.
Dr. Carson's campaign has suffered from a lack of attention not consistent with his 4th place position nationally. I noticed a disparity in the number of minutes each candidate was given in the last 3 Republican presidential debates. Dr. Carson received less than half the time given to the most voluble speaker; see below.
Last but not least, the Super Bowl. We were off by only 22 points... The p-value for the observed outcome was .1169, not significant. This reflects the enormous width of the prediction interval, plus or minus 28 points. Back-testing the model, it we got the right winner only once in the last 4 years. It seems that we need a new model! I think I'll wait until after the election in November.
I'll see you after New Hampshire votes are counted to see how our forecast did versus the polls, Real Clear Politics, and the Huffington Post.
I'll see you after New Hampshire votes are counted to see how our forecast did versus the polls, Real Clear Politics, and the Huffington Post.
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