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Hydroxychloroquine's effect on coronavirus death rates

8/16/2020

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I would like to present to you an excellent, in-depth survey of the use of hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) in the United States to treat Wuhan coronavirus:

www.tabletmag.com/sections/science/articles/hydroxychloroquine-morality-tale

Another website contains maps of HCQ restrictions by state within the United States, and by country around the world: americasfrontlinedoctorsummit.com/hcq/

A group of researchers discovered a 79% reduction in mortality from coronavirus in countries that make extensive use of HCQ compared to countries that restrict it: hcqtrial.com/

I wondered if there was a comparable result for American states. I combined the information from the HCQ by state map above, together with Worldometers data on the death rate per 1 million population (using a logarithm transformation): www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

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Here is the result.
Picture
The p-value of this relationship is 0.0002, and that is highly significant. Each additional level of restriction of HCQ adds about 37% on average to coronavirus mortality; conversely, each level of HCQ restriction that is removed reduces mortality about 27%. The average reduction from level 5 restrictions (for example, inpatient use only) to level 1 restrictions (ordinary prescription) reduces mortality about 72%. That reduction is noticeably close to that found by the HCQ trial study.

Professional statisticians will notice that the predictor variable is really ordinal, not continuous, so caution is called for in interpreting the results. This is a quick analysis, but there can be no doubt from the graph that even an ANOVA will produce a similarly significant result.
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    Hal M. Switkay, Ph.D. is a professional mathematician and statistician.

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